The Geopolitics of a Finite Earth - Seminar Recap
On September 19th, 2024 the OHPA hosted its first lecture of the new academic year featuring Dr. Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. The topic of her talk was “The Geopolitics of a Finite Earth: From the Middle East Oil Wars to Mineral-Rich Ukraine” and traced the urgent need for a low-carbon energy transition, the historical significance of fossil fuels in shaping global power dynamics, and the political and economic challenges of shifting from oil to metal dependence in the future decarbonization process.
Dr. Thompson began her presentation with an examination of the theoretical framework for understanding the political economy of finite Earth. She highlighted the increasing significance of ecological considerations and the necessity to ensure that this growth is not taken for granted in Europe. The transition to a low-carbon energy system is of paramount importance from both an ecological and an economic standpoint, given the inherent inefficiencies associated with the utilization of fossil fuels. This is particularly relevant given that Thompson asserts that the era of low oil prices is now over, largely due to geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving Russia. She highlighted that the term "energy transition" is a misnomer, as we are in fact on the cusp of an energy revolution. Dr. Thompson also observed that resource extraction has emerged as a significant political issue due to the depletion of certain key resources over time. For instance, oil, with its uneven geographical distribution, is not a sustainable long-term energy solution. This has significant political implications, as energy is fundamental to economic progress and development in many ways.
In the second part of her talk, Dr. Thompson outlined from a historical perspective how fossil fuels change the world. She began with the rise of coal and the ease of extracting and transporting it. It was the availability of coal in proximity to iron that largely enabled England in the 18th century to overtake the more prosperous and optimistic from an economic perspective China. Energy power then became the engine not only of the British economy but also of the British war machine. As she pointed out, we see a similar picture after the dawn of oil - the main geopolitical looser in Europe is precisely the one that does not have access to the new energy resource: Germany. On the other hand, Dr. Thompson pointed out that the US had no problem with oil spaces, but with the possibility of their rapid depletion due to great need. She then focused on economic nationalism and its development in other major oil-producing countries, such as the Arab states, seriously affecting Europe's energy and thus economic and political capabilities. This confronted a number of economies already dependent on oil with how to continue to develop in the face of a changing market and increasing difficulties in producing and available oil. She also addressed the development of the Ukrainian crisis and the relationship of precious metals and coal and the desire of Western companies to enter the market.
In the final segment of her talk Dr. Thompson argued that the future politics of decarbonization will be significantly shaped by the intersection of geopolitics and political economy, particularly in relation to the spatial and temporal limitations of fossil fuel extraction. As the world transitions from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources, it faces a growing reliance on metals essential for constructing decarbonized infrastructure, particularly in the production of batteries. Unlike fossil fuels, however, metals offer the advantage of being recyclable, which could mitigate long-term resource depletion. However, the shift from dependence on fossil fuels to metals has substantial political and economic consequences. One of the key challenges in this transition is the geographical concentration of critical metals. This reorients the global political landscape, reducing the geopolitical importance of traditional oil-producing countries and placing new strategic significance on nations with abundant metal reserves. Consequently, this shift may lead to increased tensions both internationally and locally, particularly in countries where resource extraction is linked to economic and political instability.
In conclusion, Dr. Thompson highlighted that we are facing an unprecedented challenge. While civilizations throughout history have grappled with spatial and temporal resource limits, we are now confronting the task of shifting from oil dependence to reliance on metals—without a clear, comprehensive strategy for overcoming our dependence on oil in the first place.
The full talk as well as the subsequent discussion is available to view on YouTube here: https://youtu.be/mqmViufAeiI