Fossil Fuels, Current Wars, and the Limits of Explanation - Workshop Recap
On 14 March 2024 the OSUN Hub for the Politics of the Anthropocene (OHPA) hosted a conference entitled 'Fossil Fuels, Current Wars, and the Limits of Explanation’ at Central European University (CEU) in Vienna, Austria. The event was organized by Aleh Cherp (Environmental Sciences, CEU) and Alexander Etkind (International Relations, CEU), with Sergey Vakulenko (nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) as the keynote speaker. Additional contributors included Siarhei Liubimau (Associate Professor at the European Humanities University, Vilnius), Kirill Rogov (political scientist, head of the project RE:RUSSIA), Richard Balme (Professor of political science at Sciences Po) and Sergei Medvedev (Professor at the Free University in Riga and Affiliate Professor at Charles University in Prague).
The discussion focused on the role of fossil fuels, climate change, and decarbonisation and these topics’ relevance to international security. The main question of the evening was to what extent these processes influence political decision-making and what considerations guide the leaders of petrostates. Which is the greater threat to these leaders: climate change, which affects our daily lives and economic means, or the loss of power of their regimes and companies that exploit resources at the expense of people and nature? Should we prioritize absolute benefits or relative ones? Should we embrace change or maintain the status quo? During this discussion, the participants focused mainly on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, sharing their perspectives and exploring potential solutions.
Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategist at Gazprom Neft, provided insights into the role of hydrocarbons in shaping Russia's foreign policy in a session chaired by Aleh Cherp. Vakulenko argued that while energy played a significant role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it wasn't the sole motivator. He highlighted two main effects of fossil fuels: the creation of justification narratives and resource accumulation, which bolster military potential, and their influence on the timing of events, particularly in Russian foreign policy.
Vakulenko emphasized the balance between gas and oil in Russian politics, with gas shaping Russia's image and relations with Europe, while oil played a crucial role in building reserves and military investment. He discussed the concept of petroaggression, linking access to oil resources with the ability to initiate wars, and highlighted the geopolitical implications of gas pricing and market liberalization in relations between Russia and the EU.
The discussion also touched on Russia's interest in forming trade blocs, particularly in response to the EU's influence in Eastern Europe. Vakulenko addressed speculations about the end of the carbon era, noting Moscow's recognition of continued global dependency on gas and oil. He outlined the potential political motivations behind a Russian attack on Ukraine, emphasizing the significance of timing and market dynamics. In conclusion, Vakulenko underscored the importance of gas and oil for Russia's policy, emphasizing their role in acquiring power and resources and shaping the timing of conflicts.
The second session, led by Professor A. Etkind, delved into various aspects of the politics of the Anthropocene, with case studies from Russia, Ukraine, and France. Sociologist Siarhei Liubimau focused on Ukraine, highlighting Moscow's strategy of targeting critical infrastructure to break Ukrainian resistance, alongside potential shifts away from fossil fuels towards nuclear power amid the conflict.
Political scientist Kiril Rogov analyzed Russia's political economy, emphasizing the rise of nationalism and its impact on domestic and foreign policy. He argued that war can only be initiated if it is turned into state nationalism and the nationalist element is mobilised, even if the goals are commercial. Rogov discussed the development of nationalist networks and resource nationalism, exacerbated by external aggression in Ukraine, leading to internal fractures within the system.
Sergey Medvedev discussed biopolitics in Russia, noting contradictions in the enforcement of life amidst war, particularly evident in policies regarding adoption and population growth. The transition from biopolitics to necropolitics, glorifying death and viewing humans as resources, epitomized Russia's trajectory as a "resource empire" in a postmodern world.
Richard Balme focused on France's energy and climate change policies, highlighting its reliance on oil and gas despite efforts towards energy independence. He discussed Russia's attempts to undermine France's position in Africa, aiming to control resources to influence the European market. Balme also highlighted China's significance in global energy dynamics, particularly its environmental stance and potential for green technology development amidst technological competition with the US. In addition to the analysis provided by Richard Balme, attention was drawn to China's unique relationship with Russia as its largest importer of fuels. Despite this dependence, China actively engages with environmental issues, although compliance with such policies remains challenging. Balme highlighted the potential for future conflicts shifting towards technological competition between the US and China, with the development of green technology playing a pivotal role.
Overall, the session offered a comprehensive examination of the complex interplay between energy, geopolitics, and environmental concerns in the Anthropocene era, illustrating the diverse strategies and challenges faced by nations across different regions.